基于Lasso的商业保险影响因素分析

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Commercial Insurance Based on Lasso

摘要: 随着我国保险业的迅速发展，商业保险在我国国民经济和居民生活中的作用日益提高，对商业保险的研究也愈加重要。本文利用Lasso回归和固定效应模型考察了商业保险的影响因素，研究发现：物价指数、人均可支配收入、人均消费支出、进出口贸易总额、老龄化程度对商业保险的影响不显著，而少儿化程度在10%水平上对商业保险有着一定的负向作用，在校学生数在5%的水平上对商业保险有着一定的正向作用，国内生产总值、就业人数和医疗卫生人数均在1%的水平上对商业保险有着一定的正向作用。最后，对商业保险的发展提出了若干可行性建议。

Abstract: With the rapid development of China’s insurance industry, commercial insurance plays an increasingly important role in China’s national economy and residents’ lives, and the research on commercial insurance is becoming more and more important. In this paper, Lasso regression and fixed effects model are used to investigate the influencing factors of commercial insurance. It is found that price index, per capita disposable income, per capita consumption expenditure, total import and export volume and aging level have no significant impact on commercial insurance, while the level of youth at 10% has a certain negative effect on commercial insurance, and the level of EDU development at 5% has a certain positive effect on commercial insurance. The economic development level, labor force level and medical and MED level of 1% have a certain positive effect on commercial insurance. Finally, some feasible suggestions on the development of commercial insurance are put forward.