基于ERA5和CMIP6资料平流层爆发性增温现象研究
The Study of Stratospheric Sudden Warming Based on ERA5 and CMIP6 Models
DOI: 10.12677/OJNS.2022.101002, PDF,    科研立项经费支持
作者: 刘昭宇, 胡 芩, 王炳赟：成都信息工程大学，大气科学学院，四川 成都
关键词: 平流层爆发性增温；极涡分类；CMIP6；统计特征；Sudden Stratospheric Warming； Polar Vortex Classification； CMIP6； Statistical Characteristic
摘要: 本文以ERA5再分析数据下的结果为参考，对比并评估了CMIP6中6个模式(CESM2-WACCM、BCC-ESM1、MRI-ESM2-0、EC-Earth3、CanESM5和NorESM2-MM) Historical实验下无强迫逐日数据对两类SSW (偏移型和分裂型)的基本统计特征的模拟能力。首先，与ERA5下的结果相比，模式数据总是会低估SSW事件的发生频率，尤其是对于分裂型，大部分模式模拟出的频率甚至不到参考值的一半。其次，SSW事件主要发生在1~3月份，而模式对SSW发生月份的模拟则表现出向晚冬(2~3月)的偏移。此外，发生在12月和1月的SSW往往具有更大的振幅，模式对此的模拟效果整体较好。
Abstract: Simulations of vortex displacement and split stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are evaluated for six models’ daily outputs (CESM2-WACCM, BCC-ESM1, MRI-ESM2-0, EC-Earth3, CanESM5 and NorESM2-MM) from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) with the ERA5 reanalysis as a baseline. Statistical characteristics are mainly evaluated. Compared with nearly six SSWs per decade in ERA5, all models underestimate the SSWs frequency, especially for split SSWs (only a half of baseline). SSWs mainly appear in midwinter in ERA5, but one-month climate drift is simulated in the models. Besides, the SSWs in December and January have a lager amplitude, which is well reproduced by most models.
文章引用：刘昭宇, 胡芩, 王炳赟. 基于ERA5和CMIP6资料平流层爆发性增温现象研究[J]. 自然科学, 2022, 10(1): 8-19. https://doi.org/10.12677/OJNS.2022.101002

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