翁源九仙桃的气候适宜性及变化趋势分析

Analysis on the Climate Suitability and Change Trend of Wengyuan Jiuxian Peach

摘要: 本文采用翁源县1981~2020年的地面观测气象资料，及DB44/T 929-2011中关于九仙桃生长的气候条件要求，运用统计学方法分析翁源九仙桃生长的气温、降水和光照等条件及气候变化趋势。结果表明，1) 气温条件为特优、降水条件为一般，光照条件为良。2) 年平均气温、极端低温和年降水量呈上升趋势，上升速率分别为0.02℃/a、0.05℃/a和1.37 mm/a，其中年平均气温和极端低温均通过0.01的显著性检验，年降水量没有通过显著性检验；年日照时数呈下降趋势，下降速率为−3.03 h/a，没有通过显著性检验。3) 年平均气温偏高、年降水量偏多、年日照时数偏少的风险在增加，而极端低温偏低、年降水量偏少的风险降低。

Abstract: This article uses the ground observation meteorological data of Wengyuan County from 1981 to 2020, and DB44/T 929-2011 on the climatic conditions for the growth of Jiuxian Peach, and uses statistical methods to analyze the temperature, precipitation and light of the growth of Wengyuan Jiuxian Peach and other conditions and climate change trends. The results show that 1) the temperature conditions are excellent, the precipitation conditions are normal, and the light conditions are good. 2) The annual average temperature, extreme low temperature and annual precipitation show an upward trend, with the rising rates being 0.02˚C/a, 0.05˚C/a and 1.37 mm/a respectively. The annual average temperature and extreme low temperature all pass the significance test of 0.01, the annual precipitation does not pass the significance test; the annual sunshine hours show a downward trend, and the decline rate is −3.03 h/a, which does not pass the significance test. 3) The risk of higher annual average temperature, higher annual precipitation, and lower annual sunshine hours is increasing, while the risk of lower extreme low temperature and lower annual precipitation decreases.