基于AHP模型的房地产项目实施阶段的风险管理

Risk Management on Implementation Stage of Real Estate Project Based on AHP Model

摘要: 本文以房地产A项目为例，详细阐述了该项目的背景情况，对其周边环境进行了综合分析，确保了项目的发展潜力。引入风险和房地产项目风险管理的相关理论，基于风险管理主要流程，通过专家调查法对项目的投资决策、前期工作、项目建设、住房租售4个阶段分别进行了风险因素的有效识别，采用定量和定性的科学方法对各阶段进行了风险的分析和评价，建立了相应的数学模型。在投资决策阶段，基于敏感性分析法研究了多个因素对项目经济指标的影响或敏感程度；在前期工作阶段，阐述了融资风险的影响；在项目建设阶段，基于层次分析法构建了风险评价模型，研究了各风险因素的重要性排序和风险等级，为风险应对措施的提出提供了依据；在住房租售阶段，基于盈亏分析法研究了项目的销售保本量和最低销售价格，为项目的定位和销售策略的制定提供了参考。基于项目的风险分析评价结果，结合实际情况，提出了项目实施全过程的风险应对措施，为实现有效的项目风险管理奠定了基础。

Abstract: Taking real estate project A as an example, this paper describes the background of the project in detail and makes a comprehensive analysis of its surrounding environment to ensure the development potential of the project. The relevant theories of risk and risk management of real estate project are introduced. Based on main processes of risk management, risk factors of the project in four stages are effectively identified by the expert investigation method, including investment and decision-making period, preliminary work period, project construction period, housing rental and sale period. By using scientific method of quantitative and qualitative analysis method, the risks in each stage are evaluated and the corresponding mathematical models are established. In the investment and decision-making stage, the influence or sensitivity degree of several factors on project economic index is studied based on sensitivity analysis method. In the preliminary work stage, the influence of financing risk is described. In the construction stage of the project, the risk evaluation model is constructed based on the analytic hierarchy process. The importance order and grade of each risk factor are studied, which provides a basis for the proposal of risk response measures. In the housing rental and sale stage, the sales break-even amount and the lowest sales price of the project are studied based on the analysis of profit and loss, which provides reference for the positioning of the project and the formulation of sales strategy. Based on the results of risk analysis and evaluation of the project, combined with the actual situation, the risk response measures in the whole process of project implementation are put forward, which lays a foundation for the realization of effective project risk management.