产业结构调整对能源消费结构变动的影响研究

Study on the Influence of Industrial Structure Adjustment on Energy Consumption Structure Change

摘要: 在我国工业化和城镇化进程中，各方面生产活动对能源的需求都逐渐增大，各类环境问题也成为能源消耗所导致的恶果，究其主要原因是我国的能源利用效率不高，产业结构合理度较差等。因此本文选取了在地理位置、能源储备、经济发展现状等各方面都较有特色的江苏省为目标区域，研究产业结构调整对能源消费结构所带来的影响，探索能够提高能源利用效率的方法，这不仅能够为类似的省份提供借鉴，同时对改善生态环境，刺激经济发展也有重要意义。本文首先对江苏省的能源消费结构、产业结构发展情况、三大产业的能源消费量以及能源消费效率进行了定性的分析，根据产业发展情况总结能源消费结构特点。然后，基于2003年~2017年的数据，本文选用灰色关联分析法和回归分析法对三大产业与能源消费总量的关联度和影响程度进行了定量的分析，实证结果表明第二产业对能源消费量有显著的关联度，第三产业排名第二，第一产业最小。最后，本文在上述分析的基础上总结了结论并根据江苏省的现状提出了政策建议。

Abstract: China is in an important stage of industrialization and urbanization. The demand for energy in all aspects of production activities remains at a high level. With the large consumption of energy, various environmental pollution problems come one after another. The main reason is that China’s industrial structure is unreasonable and energy efficiency is not high. Therefore, this paper chooses Jiangsu Province as the target region, which has its own characteristics in geographical location, energy reserves, economic development status and so on, as the target area to study the impact of industrial structure adjustment on energy consumption structure and explore methods to improve energy utilization efficiency, which can not only provide reference for similar provinces, but also improve the ecological environment. Stimulating economic development is also of great significance. Firstly, this paper makes a qualitative analysis on the energy consumption structure, industrial structure development, energy consumption and energy consumption efficiency of the three industries in Jiangsu Province, and summarizes the characteristics of energy consumption structure according to the industrial development. Then, based on the data from 2003 to 2017, this paper selects the grey correlation analysis method and regression analysis method to make a quantitative analysis on the correlation degree and influence degree between the three industries and the total energy consumption. The empirical results show that the secondary industry has a significant correlation degree to the energy consumption, the tertiary industry ranks second and the primary industry is the smallest. Finally, based on the above analysis, this paper summarizes the conclusions and puts forward policy suggestions according to the current situation of Jiangsu Province.