贸易开放一定能使人幸福吗？——基于PMG估计的实证检验

Can Trade Openness Make People Happy?—Based on the Empirical Test of PMG Estimation

摘要: 人民幸福是中国梦的最终落脚点，基于各省宏观数据，利用熵值法构建居民幸福指数体系评价标准，运用相关性检验和PMG估计研究贸易开放是否在短期与长期内都能提高城市、农村居民的幸福指数。结果表明：我国各省城市和农村居民幸福指数都与贸易开放有强烈相关性，短期内，贸易开放能显著提高居民幸福指数，对城市居民幸福指数的促进作用更强；长期内，贸易开放对居民幸福指数存在抑制作用，且对农村地区削弱作用更强；分区域看贸易开放短期对中西部城市居民幸福指数促进作用强于东部地区，而长期对中西部农村居民幸福指数负向作用较强；此外，居民幸福指数构成的五个维度受贸易开放的短期与长期影响不一致，存在较大差异。

Abstract: People’s happiness is the ultimate destination of the Chinese Dream. Based on the macro data of each province, the evaluation standard of residents’ happiness index system is constructed by using entropy method, and the correlation test and PMG estimation are used to study whether trade opening can improve the happiness index of urban and rural residents in the short and long term. The results show that there is a strong correlation between the happiness index of urban and rural residents and the trade opening. In the short term, the trade opening can significantly improve the happiness index of residents, and has a stronger promotion effect on the happiness index of urban residents. In the long run, trade opening has an inhibitory effect on residents’ happiness index, and the weakening effect is stronger in rural areas. By region, trade opening has a stronger short-term promoting effect on the happiness index of urban residents in the central and western regions than that in the eastern regions, while it has a stronger long-term negative effect on the happiness index of rural residents in the central and western regions. In addition, the five dimensions of residents’ happiness index are not consistent with the short-term and long-term effects of trade opening, and there are great differences.