城市群视角下人口迁移的时空演变规律与影响因素分析

Analysis on the Temporal and Spatial Evolution Law and Influencing Factors of Population Migration from the Perspective of Urban Agglomeration

摘要: 文章从城市群视角，基于2010年和2015年五大城市群的人口和社会经济发展数据，采用多元线性回归和空间分析方法，探究五大城市群内人口迁移活动的时空分布规律和影响因素。研究结果表明：1) 人口迁移活动的区域差异在这五年间保持稳定，发展较早的三大城市群不仅流动人口比例较高，流动人口的来源地也更复杂，尤其是珠三角城市群，其流动人口比例显著高于其余城市群且增速强劲。2) 人口迁移活动存在显著的正向空间自相关，流动人口比例接近的区域在空间上趋向集中分布，并且这种空间正相关性在逐渐减弱。3) 经济和社会发展水平是人口迁移活动的主要影响因素，其中经济发展水平高并且科技化、市场化发展良好的区域对迁移人口有明显的吸引力。同时，文化因素开始显现出正向的影响力。

Abstract: From the perspective of urban agglomeration, based on the population and socio-economic de-velopment data of the five urban agglomerations in 2010 and 2015, this paper uses multiple li-near regression and spatial analysis methods to explore the temporal and spatial distribution law and influencing factors of population migration activities in the five urban agglomerations. The results show that: 1) the regional differences of population migration activities have re-mained stable in the past five years. The three urban agglomerations that developed earlier not only have a higher proportion of floating population, but also have more complex sources. Espe-cially, the urban agglomerations in the Pearl River Delta have a significantly higher proportion of floating population than other urban agglomerations and a strong growth rate. 2) There is a significant positive spatial autocorrelation in population migration activities. The regions with similar proportion of floating population tend to be concentrated in space, and this spatial posi-tive correlation is gradually weakening. 3) The level of economic and social development is the main influencing factor of population migration activities, among which the regions with high level of economic development and good scientific, technological and market development have obvious attraction to the migrant population. At the same time, cultural factors began to show positive influence.