我国桥梁工程项目风险管理热点与前沿挖掘

Hot Spots and Frontier Mining of Bridge Project Risk Management in China

摘要: 本研究从CNKI上选取784篇文献，导入CiteSpaceV 5.7R得到作者–机构、关键词共现知识图谱，以期挖掘出我国桥梁工程项目风险管理研究的热点和前沿。研究得出结论：根据作者–机构共现知识图谱发现，从整体上看，学者和机构的合作关系不强，但是发文量靠前的作者和机构之间联系密切；根据发文量和发文时间段将我国桥梁工程项目风险管理研究分为起步阶段(2003~2006)、发展阶段(2007~2012)、高潮阶段(2013~2015)、平稳阶段(2016~2020)，并对每一阶段的政策和事故进行总结和分析，得到每一阶段的代表文献和研究成果；总结了我国桥梁工程项目风险研究的热点发展走向：结构稳定性风险评估→施工阶段安全风险管理、风险分析方法→风险源识别、设计–施工阶段的成本、安全和质量风险管理→全寿命周期风险管理、数字化模型运用；并预测研究重点会朝数字化风险管理、环境风险管理和动态风险管理发展。研究不足：一是本研究的数据来源于CNKI，没有包括其他中文文献收录网站；二是没有对国内学者发表在国外期刊的文献进行分析。

Abstract: This paper selects 784 articles from CNKI and imports CiteSpaceV 5.7R to get the author-institution keyword co-occurrence knowledge map, in order to dig out the hot spots and frontier of bridge project risk management research in China. The results show that: according to the author-institution co-occurrence knowledge map, on the whole, the cooperation between scholars and institutions is not strong, but the relationship between the top authors and institutions is close. According to the amount and time period of documents, the research on risk management of bridge engineering project in China is divided into the initial stage (2003~2006), development stage (2007~2012), climax stage (2013~2015) and stable stage (2016~2020). The policies and accidents in each stage are summarized and analyzed, and the representative literature and research results of each stage are obtained. This paper summarizes the hot development trend of bridge project risk research in China: structural stability risk assessment→safety risk management in construction stage and risk analysis method→risk source identification and cost-safety-quality risk management in design and construction stage→life cycle risk management and digital model application. It is predicted that the research focus will develop towards digital risk management, environmental risk management and dynamic risk management. Limitations: first, the data of this study comes from CNKI, not including other Chinese literature websites; second, there is no analysis of the literature published by domestic scholars in foreign journals.