基于SEIR模型的舆情传播分析与引导策略

Analysis and Guiding Strategy of Public Opinion Based on SEIR Model

摘要: 随着互联网技术的飞速发展，社交媒体已经成为互联网用户发布、分享信息的重要途径，给信息传播提供便利的同时也成为突发话题产生与传播的重要平台。首先，基于SEIR传染病模型，本文围绕网络舆情的传播和引导问题，通过仿真模拟和案例分析探讨了社交网络舆情传播规律；其次，基于传播规律从舆情引导时间节点、引导内容和引导平台的选择三个方面提出网络舆情的引导的策略。研究成果有利于为网络舆情引导提供参考和建议。

Abstract: With the rapid development of Internet technology, social media has become an important way for internet users to post and share information. The social media facilitates the information propagation, and becomes one of the major platforms for discussing and spreading unexpected topics. Firstly, based on the SEIR epidemic model, this paper discusses the propagation of the public opinion in social network bythe simulation of opinion propagation and case analysis. Secondly, according to the opinion propagation pattern, this paper puts forward the strategies for guiding public opinion in social network from three aspects, i.e., the time of guiding opinion, the information style of guiding opinion and the platform for spreading guiding opinion. The research results are helpful to provide reference and suggestion for the guidance of network public opinion.