黄水沟流域水资源变化特征及其未来趋势预估
Characteristics of Runoff in Huangshuigou River Basin and Its Future Change Trend
DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2022.111004, PDF,    国家自然科学基金支持
作者: 程 勇：新疆塔里木河流域巴音郭楞管理局，新疆 库尔勒；方功焕, 周洪华*：中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所/荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室，新疆 乌鲁木齐
关键词: 水文过程；气候变化；分布式水文模型；趋势预估；干旱区；Hydrological Process； Climate Change； Distributed Hydrological Model； Trend Estimation； Arid Area
摘要: 本文分析了黄水沟流域1961~2019年间的水文过程变化特征，并采用GCM模型和分布式水文模型(SWAT模型)预估了流域内的未来气候和来水量变化：在1961~2019年间径流呈增加趋势，年均增长率为0.0226 × 108 m3，年内径流主要分布在夏季，占全年径流的57.1%。模拟结果表明，在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，到21世纪末(2066~2099)黄水沟流域最高气温将分别升高2.8℃和5.0℃；降水量总体呈上升的趋势，2066~2099年间将增至251 mm和265 mm；黄水沟径流呈现出先升高再下降的趋势，最高年径流分别达3.59 × 108 m3和3.78 × 108 m3，黄水沟未来年径流在夏季变化幅度最高。研究结果可为黄水沟流域水资源合理开发利用，提供科学基础和依据。
Abstract: Annual runoff change characteristics of the Huangshuigou River during 1961~2019 were analyzed, and its future change trends were evaluated using GCM and SWAT model. The results show that annual runoff is increased from 1961 to 2019, with an annual increasing rate of 0.0226 × 108 m3. The annual runoff is mainly concentrated on summer, which accounts for 57.1% of the annual runoff. The simulation results show that under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, ,the maximum temperature of Huangshuigou River basin will increase by 2.8˚C and 5.0˚C in the end of the 21st century (2066~2099), respectively; the total precipitation shows an increase trend that the average annual precipitation will increase to 251 mm and 265 mm in 2066~2099; the runoff of Huangshuigou River shows an increasing trend first and then decreasing, which the highest is 3.59 × 108 m3 and 3.78 × 108 m3, respectively. The change degree of annual runoff in Huangshuigou River is the highest in summer. Our research could provide the basis for the rational utilization and scientific management of water resources in Huangshuigou River basin.
文章引用：程勇, 方功焕, 周洪华. 黄水沟流域水资源变化特征及其未来趋势预估[J]. 水资源研究, 2022, 11(1): 42-49. https://doi.org/10.12677/JWRR.2022.111004

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