高速公路交通事故影响因素分析及防控策略

Analysis of Factors Affecting Expressway Traffic Accident and Preventive Measure

摘要: 严重的交通事故会使高速公路通行能力大大降低，并在很短时间内造成交通拥堵和行车延误，而正确合理的事故影响范围分析可以有效提高高速公路的事故管理水平。本文以北京市高速公路为例，对交通事故形态、时空特征以及事故发生前后交通流变化特征进行分析，提出了不同因素对于事故发生的多因素耦合作用。在此基础上研究了事故持续时间的主要影响因素，采用K-means聚类方法分析流量与事故持续时间的关系，有针对性地提出在高速公路运营管理过程中减少和防止事故发生的方法和对策，为管理部门提供参考。

Abstract: Serious traffic accidents will greatly reduce the capacity of the expressway, and cause traffic congestion and travel delays in a very short time. So the reasonable analysis and correct prediction of the impact of the accident can effectively improve the freeway accident management. Taking the expressway in Beijing as an example, this paper analyzes the traffic accident patterns, temporal and spatial characteristics and the traffic flow change characteristics before and after the accident, and puts forward the multi-factor coupling effect of different factors on the accident. On this basis, the main influencing factors of the accident duration are studied, and the relationship between traffic flow and the accident duration is analyzed by using k-means clustering method. The methods and countermeasures to reduce and prevent accidents in the process of expressway operation and management are put forward to provide reference for the management department.