中美贸易战对中国出口的贸易偏转和贸易限制效应研究

Research on the Trade Deflection and Trade Restriction Effects of the Sino-US Trade War on China’s Exports

摘要: 根据联合国商品贸易数据库显示，2019年贸易战导致中美双边贸易减少，贸易总量下降，对中美双方的经济贸易以及世界的经济贸易造成了影响。为使中国在复杂多变的国际环境中更好的应对贸易摩擦，本文选取中国出口排名前29个国家作为样本国，运用贸易引力模型对2009年到2019年中国对其贸易数据进行贸易偏转效应实证研究，分样本测算贸易偏转效应显著度；进一步运用1990年到2019年中国对美国出口额检验贸易限制效应，得出结论并提出相应对策。

Abstract: According to the UN Comtrade Database, the trade war between China and the US in 2019 led to a reduction in Sino-US bilateral trade and a decline in total trade. It has contributed negative impact to the economic and trade between China and the US, as well as the world’s. On this basis, we select the top 29 countries in China’s export rankings as sample countries, use the trade gravity model to conduct an empirical study on China’s trade deflection effects on its trade data from 2009 to 2019, and calculate the significance of trade deflection effects by different samples. We use China’s ex-ports to the US from 1990 to 2019 to test the effect of trade restrictions and draw conclusions and propose corresponding countermeasures.