中国省域国内旅游收入影响因素的分位数回归分析

Quantile Regression Analysis of Influencing Factors of Domestic Tourism Income in China

摘要: 基于2011~2018年我国31个省、市和自治区的面板数据，本文以国内旅游收入为研究对象，主要探讨各影响因素对国内旅游收入的异质性效应。首先，采用主成分分析法选取了可能影响国内旅游收入的综合指标，同时对国内旅游收入及各影响因素进行单位根和正态性检验，证明了采用分位数回归方法的合理性；其次，面板分位数回归模型实证结果表明，除旅游接待能力的作用不明显外，经济发展水平、旅游核心吸引物、基础设施和劳动力资源投入均对国内旅游收入有推动作用，且各影响因素的作用大小变化趋势随0.01~0.99分位点的变化而变化。据此，我们做了相应的政策解读。

Abstract: Based on the panel data of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2011 to 2018, this paper takes domestic tourism income as the research object and mainly discusses the heterogeneous effect of various influencing factors on domestic tourism income. Firstly, the comprehensive indexes which may affect the domestic tourism income are selected by using principal component analysis method, and the unit root and normality tests are carried out on the domestic tourism income and the influencing factors, which proves the rationality of using quantile regression method. Second, the empirical results of panel quantile regression model show that in addition to the role of the tourist reception capacity is not obvious, the level of economic development, the core attractions of tourism, infrastructure and labor resource investment all have a promoting effect on domestic tourism income, and the effect of various influencing factors of size change trend changes over 0.01~0.99 sites. Accordingly, we made the corresponding policy interpretation.