气象条件和空气污染物对邮轮延误时长的影响——基于逐步回归分析
Impact of Meteorological Conditions and Air Pollutants on Cruise Delay—Based on Stepwise Regression Analysis
摘要: 邮轮旅游是休闲旅游中增长最快的部分,邮轮旅游业是极其脆弱和敏感的行业,极易受外部环境的影响和突发事件的冲击。研究气象条件和空气污染物对邮轮延误的影响对于规避邮轮运营的经济损失有着举足轻重的意义,因此,本文采用逐步回归分析影响邮轮延误时长的气象条件和空气污染物,结果发现:降水量、风速、能见度和CO浓度是主要影响邮轮延误时长的影响因素,并且随着降水量的增加,风速的增强和CO浓度的增大,还有能见度降低,邮轮的延误时长会越来越长。
Abstract: Cruise tourism is the fastest growing part of leisure tourism. Cruise tourism is an extremely fragile and sensitive industry, which is very vulnerable to the impact of external environment and emergencies. Studying the impact of meteorological conditions and air pollutants on cruise delay is of great significance to avoid the economic loss of cruise operation. Stepwise regression analysis is used to analyze the meteorological conditions and air pollutants affecting the duration of cruise delay. The results show that precipitation, wind speed, visibility and Co are the main factors affecting the delay time of cruise ships. With the increase of precipitation, the increase of wind speed and Co, and the decrease of visibility, the delay time of cruise ships will be longer and longer.
文章引用:王仁鑫, 叶欣梁, 孙瑞红. 气象条件和空气污染物对邮轮延误时长的影响——基于逐步回归分析[J]. 应用数学进展, 2022, 11(3): 1255-1262. https://doi.org/10.12677/AAM.2022.113136

参考文献

[1] Csete, M., Palvoelgyi, T. and Szendroe, G. (2013) Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability of Tourism in Hungary. Regional Environmental Change, 13, 1043-1057. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[2] Verbos, R.I. and Brownlee, M.T.J. (2017) The Weather Dependency Framework (WDF): A Tool for Assessing the Weather Dependency of Outdoor Recreation Activities. Journal of Outdoor Recreation & Tourism, 18, 88-99. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[3] 尹鹏, 刘曙光, 段佩利. 海岛型旅游目的地脆弱性及其障碍因子分析——以舟山市为例[J]. 经济地理, 2017, 37(10): 234-240.
[4] Nicholls, S. and Amelung, B. (2008) Climate Change and Tourism in Northwestern Europe: Impacts and Adaptation. Tourism Analysis, 13, 21-31. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[5] Kim, S., Park, J.H., Lee, D.K., et al. (2017) The Impacts of Weather on Tourist Satisfaction and Revisit Intention: A Study of South Korean Domestic Tourism. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 22, 1-14. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[6] Falk, M. (2012) Impact of Long-Term Weather on Domestic and Foreign Winter Tourism Demand. International Journal of Tourism Research, 15, 1-17. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[7] Millhäusler, A. anderwald, P., Haeni, M., et al. (2016) Publicity, Economics and Weather-Changes in Visitor Numbers to a European National Park over 8 Years. Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism, 16, 50-57. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[8] 唐承财, 刘霄泉, 宋昌耀. 雾霾对区域旅游业的影响及应对策略探讨[J]. 地理与地理信息科学, 2016, 32(5): 121-126.
[9] 杨军辉, 赵永宏. 雾霾天气对国内游客旅游意愿与行为影响研究——以西安为例[J]. 人文地理, 2019, 34(6): 136-145.
[10] Wijaya, N. and Furqan, A. (2018) Coastal Tourism and Climate-Related Disasters in an Archipelago Country of Indonesia: Tourists’ Perspective. Procedia Engineering, 212, 535-542. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[11] Hübner, A. and Gössling, S. (2012) Tourist Perceptions of Extreme Weather Events in Martinique. Journal of Destination Marketing & Management, 1, 47-55. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[12] Rahman, N.S.F.A., Othman, M.K., Sanusi, I.A., et al. (2019) Evaluation of Delay Factors on Dry Bulk Cargo Operation in Malaysia: A Case Study of Kemaman Port. Asian Journal of Shipping and Logs, 35, 127-137. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[13] Sun, X., Xu, M., Lau, Y., et al. (2019) Cruisers’ Satisfaction with Shore Experience: An Empirical Study on a China-Japan Itinerary. Ocean & Coastal Management, 181, Article ID: 104867. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[14] Le, T.H. and Arcodia, C. (2018) Risk Perceptions on Cruise Ships among Young People: Concepts, Approaches and Directions. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 69, 102-112. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[15] Zhang, Y., Wei, K., Shen, Z., et al. (2020) Economic Impact of Typhoon-Induced Wind Disasters on Port Operations: A Case Study of Ports in China. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 50, Article ID: 101719. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[16] Cao, X. and Lam, J.S.L. (2018) Simulation-Based Catastrophe-Induced Port Loss Estimation. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 175, 1-12. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[17] Lam, J.S.L. and Lassa, J.A. (2017) Risk Assessment Framework for Exposure of Cargo and Ports to Natural Hazards and Climate Extremes. Maritime Policy & Management, 44, 1-15. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[18] Shih, C. and Nicholls, S. (2012) How Do Weather Conditions Influence Leisure Traffic? Evidence from Michigan and Implications for Climate Change. Tourism Analysis, 17, 431-443. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[19] Hewer, M., Scott, D. and Fenech, A. (2016) Seasonal Weather Sensitivity, Temperature Thresholds, and Climate Change Impacts for Park Visitation. Tourism Geographies, 18, 297-321. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[20] 周威, 陈朝晖, 李仁鹏, 肖硕. 基于网络关注度的天气与旅游相关性分析——以长沙为例[J]. 气象科技, 2020, 48(4): 607-614.
[21] 成珂, 孙琦琦, 马晓瑶. 基于主成分回归分析的气象因子对光伏发电量的影响[J]. 太阳能学报, 2021, 42(2): 403-409.
[22] Cheng, K., Guo, L.M. and Wang, Y.K. (2017) Application of Cluster Analysis in Photovoltaic Power Generation Prediction. Renewable Energy, 35, 696-701.