基于股利贴现模型的五粮液股价估值分析

An Analysis of Stock Price Valuation of Wuliangye Based on Constant Dividend Discount Model

摘要: 以深圳证券交易所上市的五粮液(000858)为研究对象，在对增长趋势进行合理设定的前提下，运用固定股利贴现模型对其进行股价估值分析。首先，采用2015年至2019年的历史数据确定模型参数；然后，用该模型对2020年末的股价进行预测，估值结果显示了该模型的有效性。研究结果表明，固定股利贴现模型对于大多数市场波动幅度小、现金分红和派发股利稳定的A股上市公司具有一定的适用性。

Abstract: In this paper, Wuliangye (000858) listed in Shenzhen Stock Exchange is selected as the research object. On the premise of reasonably setting the growth trend, the constant dividend discount mod-el is used to analyze its stock price valuation. First, the parameters of valuation model are evaluated with historical data from 2015 to 2019, and then the model is used to forecast stock price in 2020. Empirical results conduct the reliability of this valuation model. The result shows that dividend discount model has certain applicability to most of the listed companies in the A-share markets with less volatility, cash dividend and stable dividend distributing.