基于灰色理论的山东省人口老龄化发展趋势及影响因素研究

Study on the Development Trend and Influencing Factors of Population Aging in Shandong Province Based on Grey Theory

摘要: 利用灰色系统理论的GM(1, 1)预测模型预测2021~2030年的山东人口数量与老年人口总量，运用灰色关联度和主成分分析法分析了山东人口老龄化的主要影响因素，以期为山东省政府各职能部门制定有关政策提供依据。2021~2030年间山东省65岁以上人口的数量将逐年增加，并且上涨速度很快。2030年老年人口数量将比2020年翻一番，对山东省人口老龄化程度影响较大的因素是卫生技术人员数和人均GDP；文章提出了推进养老服务产业的优化改革、加大对专业技术人员的培训力度、优化人口结构和开发老年人力资源市场等应对山东省人口老龄化的对策。

Abstract: The population and the total elderly population of Shandong Province in 2021 and 2030 are predicted by using the grey system theory’s GM prediction model. The grey correlation degree and principal component analysis are used to analyze the main influencing factors of Shandong population aging, in order to provide a basis for various functional departments of Shandong provincial government to formulate relevant policies. Between 2021 and 2030, the number of people over 65 in Shandong Province will increase year by year, and the rate of increase will be very fast. The number of elderly population in 2030 will be double than that in 2020. The factors that have a great impact on the degree of population aging in Shandong Province are the number of health technicians and per capita GDP; The article proposes countermeasures to cope with the aging of the population in Shandong Province, such as promoting the optimization and reform of the old-age service industry, increasing the training of professional and technical personnel, optimizing the population structure and developing the elderly human resources market.