南京市商品房价格预测——基于ARIMA模型和SARIMA模型的比较分析

Forecast of Commercial Housing Prices in Nanjing—A Comparative Analysis Based on ARIMA Model and SARIMA Model

摘要: 以南京市商品房房价为研究对象，选取2014年1月至2021年10月为观测时间，构建ARIMA和SARIMA时间序列模型进行房价预测。结果表明，ARIMA(1, 1, 4)模型是拟合房价的最优模型，因此对南京市商品房未来一年的房价做了短期预测，并结合预测结果和南京市房地产业发展状况提出相关建议。

Abstract: Taking the price of commercial housing in Nanjing as the research object, the ARIMA and SARIMA time series models are constructed to predict the housing price from January 2014 to October 2021. The results show that ARIMA(1, 1, 4) model is the best model to fit housing prices. So this re-search made a short-term prediction of Nanjing commercial housing prices in the coming year and put forward some suggestions combined with the forecast results and the development status of the real estate industry in Nanjing.