我国省域二氧化硫排放量的影响因素分析——基于空间杜宾模型的研究

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Provincial Sulfur Dioxide Emissions in China—Research Based on Spatial Dubin Model

摘要: 减少或控制二氧化硫排放量是我国节能减排的主要目标。基于2004~2018年我国省域相关变量的面板数据，首先采用全局Moran’s I指数和局部Moran散点图研究了我国省域二氧化硫排放量的空间相关性；其次，通过拓展STIRPAT模型建立空间杜宾模型研究了二氧化硫排放量的影响因素；进一步，考察了二氧化硫排放量影响因素的直接效应和间接效应。研究结果表明：1) 我国二氧化硫排放存在显著的空间正相关性；2) 本区域人口数和相邻地区的研发强度的增加有利于改善二氧化硫的排放；本地区及相邻地区对环境投资占比的增加却大大加剧二氧化硫排放污染；3) 二氧化硫排放量主要受本地区能源消费的影响，而其他地区能源消费对本地区二氧化硫排放量的影响有限。据此，本文提出了相应的政策建议。

Abstract: Reducing or controlling sulfur dioxide emissions is the main goal of energy conservation and emission reduction in China. Based on the panel data of provincial correlated variables in China from 2004 to 2018, the spatial correlation of sulfur dioxide emissions in China was studied by using global Moran’s I index and local Moran scatter plot. Secondly, the influence factors of sulfur dioxide emissions were studied by expanding the spatial Dubin model. Furthermore, the direct and indirect effects of sulfur dioxide emission factors were investigated. The results show that: 1) There is a significant positive spatial correlation between sulfur dioxide emissions in China; 2) The increase of population in the region and the research and development intensity in adjacent areas is beneficial to the improvement of sulfur dioxide emissions; however, the increase of the proportion of environmental investment in this region and its neighboring regions greatly increased the sulfur dioxide emission pollution; 3) Sulfur dioxide emissions are mainly affected by energy consumption in the region, while energy consumption in other regions has a limited impact on sulfur dioxide emissions in the region. Accordingly, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions.