老年抚养比、老龄化率和城市化率对公共养老金支出的影响——基于2011~2020年《中国统计年鉴》的数据分析

Effects of Elderly Dependency Ratio, Aging Rate and Urbanization Rate on Public Pension Expenditure—Data Analysis Based on China Statistical Yearbook 2011~2020

摘要: 公共养老金支出是养老保险制度的重要组成部分。我国人口老龄化的日益加剧，在一定程度上影响了养老保险制度的财政可持续性。论文通过选取《中国统计年鉴》中2011~2020年公共养老金支出的相关数据，构建公共养老金支出水平影响因素的一元线性回归模型，分析老年抚养比、劳动参与率、老龄化率和城市化率对其的影响。实证结果表明，除了劳动参与率对公共养老金支出水平的影响不显著，老年抚养比、老龄化率和城市化率对公共养老金支出水平均具有显著的正向影响作用。其中，老年抚养比和老龄化率是影响公共养老金支出水平的主要因素，论文以此为实现公共养老金给付的财政可持续性提出政策建议。

Abstract: Public pension expenditure is an important part of the pension insurance system. The increasing population aging in China affects the financial sustainability of the pension insurance system to a certain extent. By selecting the relevant data of public pension expenditure in China Statistical Yearbook from 2011 to 2020, the research constructs a linear regression model of influencing factors of public pension expenditure level and analyzes the influence of elderly dependency ratio, labor participation rate, aging rate and urbanization rate on it. The empirical results show that, except that the labor participation rate has no significant influence on the level of public pension expenditure, the elderly dependency ratio, the aging rate and the urbanization rate have significant positive effects on the level of public pension expenditure. Among them, the elderly dependency ratio and aging rate are the main factors affecting the level of public pension expenditure. Based on it, the research puts forward policy suggestions for realizing the fiscal sustainability of public pension payment.