首都机场地面观测对实况分析场的独立性检验

Independence Evaluation of Real-Time Analysis with Surface Observation of Capital Airport

摘要: 本文利用北京首都机场6个站点2021年1~11月地面观测的风、温、湿、压资料，对气象部门实时观测分析系统(RTOAS)的实况分析场进行了独立性检验，通过均方根误差、相关分析和偏差分析，得到RTOAS2米气温分析具有较好的准确性，其次是气压、相对湿度，最后是风速。2米气温90%样本平均偏差小于0.5℃，相关系数达到0.99，24小时滚动均方根误差主体在1℃以内。气压的平均偏差小于3 hPa，24小时滚动均方根误差在1.5~3 hPa。2米相对湿度平均偏差基本小于3%，相关系数1.03，均方根误差主要在2.5%~5%。风速的准确性相对低一些，偏差小于3 m/s，相关系数0.59。由于机场不同观测点之间存在差异，采用不同点的平均值进行检验的效果优于不同点的检验。

Abstract: The observation analysis field of the Real-time Observation Analysis System (RTOAS) was inde-pendent verified by the surface observation data of wind speed, temperature, humidity and pressure from January to November 2021 at six points in the Capital Airport. Through the study of root mean square error, correlation and deviation, the results show that the accuracy of RTOAS 2 m air temperature has the highest level, followed by air pressure, relative humidity, and finally wind speed. The correlation coefficient of 2 m air temperature between the observation data and the analysis data is 0.99, 90% samples of the 2 m air temperature deviation are less than 0.5˚C, and the 24-hour rolling root-mean-square error (RMSE) is mostly less than 1˚C. The 24-hour rolling RMSE of the pressure is within 1.5~3 hPa, the average deviation of the pressure is less than 3 hPa. The correlation coefficient of the 2 m air relative humidity is 1.03, 95% samples of the average deviation of 2 m air relative humidity are less than 3%, and the 24-hour rolling RMSE is mostly within 2.5%~5%. The accuracy of wind speed is relatively low, the correlation coefficient of wind speed is 0.59, and the average deviation of wind speed samples is mostly less than 3 m/s. Due to the differences in the observed values of the six points at the airport, the verification results by the average value of six points are better than that by individual points.