新旧养老观念碰撞下育龄女性的生育意愿——基于CGSS2018数据的实证研究

The Fertility Intention of Women of Childbearing Age under the Collision of Old and New Pension Concepts—An Empirical Study Based on CGSS2018 Data

摘要: 在新时代社会转型的背景下，中国面临着人口老龄化危机和低生育率的双重压力，随即出台了“三孩政策”及配套支持措施，并推进构建生育友好型社会，但是持续多年的“独生子女”政策效应很难在短期内消失，在新时期如何提升育龄人口的生育意愿，促进人口可持续发展，成为当前社会关注的焦点问题。本文采用2018年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据，运用多元有序Logistic回归分析，探究了新旧养老观念对育龄人口生育意愿的作用机理，并得出以下结论：第一，育龄女性的养老观念对生育意愿有着显著影响，在新旧养老观念的碰撞下，保持传统养老观念的育龄女性相较于持有现代养老观念的育龄女性生育意愿更高。第二，不同地区的育龄女性对于养老责任的认知和观念不同，所以育龄女性的养老观念对其生育意愿的影响程度在不同地区上存在差异，影响最为显著的主要是在西部地区。基于理论探讨与实证分析，对于如何有效提升育龄女性生育意愿提出了相关的政策建议。

Abstract: In the context of social transformation in the new era, China is faced with the dual pressure of population aging crisis and low fertility rate. The “three-child policy” and supporting measures are introduced immediately, and the construction of a fertility-friendly society is promoted. However, the effect of the “only child” policy that has lasted for many years is difficult to disappear in the short term. How to improve the fertility desire of the childbearing-age population and promote the sustainable development of the population in the new period has become the focus of the current society. Based on the data of China General Social Survey (CGSS) in 2018, this paper uses multiple ordered Logistic regression analysis to explore the mechanism of the old and new pension concepts on the fertility intention of the childbearing age population, and draws the following conclusions: Firstly, the concept of pension for women of childbearing age has a significant impact on fertility intention. Under the collision of the old and new pension concepts, the fertility intention of women of childbearing age who maintain the traditional pension concept is higher than that of women of childbearing age who hold the modern pension concept. Second, women of childbearing age in different regions have different perceptions and concepts of pension responsibility, so the influence of women of childbearing age on their fertility intention is different in different regions, and the most obvious influence is in the western region. Based on theoretical discussion and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions on how to effectively improve the fertility intention of women of childbearing age.