地方债对地方经济高质量发展的影响研究——基于省际面板数据的实证研究

Research on the Impact of Local Debt on the High-Quality Development of Local Economy—Empirical Research Based on Provincial Panel Data

摘要: 十九届四中全会强调，要推动经济实现高质量发展，提高我国经济发展质量，是今后相当长时期我国经济建设的着力点。然而，当前中国经济正处于转型升级的关键期，经济结构不断优化调整，经济增速换挡加快。地方债已经成为威胁我国经济健康发展的重要因素，这对我国经济高质量的发展提出了现实的挑战。在此背景下，本文对探究地方债与经济高质量发展两者之间存在的内在逻辑联系具有重要意义。本文运用面板数据回归模型，对2013~2019年全国31个省市地方债与经济发展高质量发展之间的非线性关系进行了分析。并得出如下结论：1) 我国的不同区域经济高质量发展水平差异较大，北京、上海、广东一直处于经济高质量发展的第一梯队。随着时间的推移，各省份的经济高质量发展水平之间的差距逐渐增大。我国东部沿海，经济高质量发展有较大的优势，我国西部地区，发展水平较为滞后。2) 地方政府债务助推经济高质量发展，地方债对高质量发展的拉动作用为12.4%。地方债对科技创新具有“遮掩效应”。3) 地方债通过显著影响对外开放水平，进而影响经济高质量发展水平。

Abstract: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee emphasized that promoting high-quality economic development and improving the quality of my country’s economic development are the focus of my country’s economic construction for a long period of time in the future. However, China’s economy is currently in a critical period of transformation and upgrading, the economic structure is constantly being optimized and adjusted, and the economic growth rate is accelerating. Local debt has become an important factor threatening the healthy development of my country’s economy, which poses a realistic challenge to the high-quality development of my country’s economy. In this context, this paper is of great significance for exploring the inherent logical connection between lo-cal debt and high-quality economic development. This paper uses a panel data regression model to analyze the nonlinear relationship between local debt and high-quality economic development in 31 provinces and cities across the country from 2013 to 2019. The following conclusions are drawn: 1) The level of high-quality economic development in different regions in my country is quite dif-ferent, and Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong have always been in the first echelon of high-quality economic development. Over time, the gap between the high-quality economic development levels of the provinces has gradually increased. The eastern coast of my country has great advantages in high-quality economic development, while the development level of the western region of my coun-try is lagging behind. 2) Local government debt boosts high-quality economic development, and lo-cal government debt contributes 12.4% to high-quality development. Local debt has a “masking ef-fect” on scientific and technological innovation. 3) Local debt significantly affects the level of opening to the outside world, thereby affecting the level of high-quality economic development.