我国社会保障水平对居民消费影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Social Security Level on Residents’ Consumption in China

摘要: 收入是影响居民消费支出的决定性因素，理论上，社会保障的风险防范功能可以稳定或改善居民的消费预期，释放消费潜力，促进消费支出的增加。通过实证分析研究社会保障对居民消费支出产生何种影响是众多学者共同关注的一个议题。本文基于《中国统计年鉴》的统计数据，分析了社会保障对消费者消费支出的影响。结果发现：居民可支配收入对居民消费支出有显著正向影响，社会保障是否存在对居民消费支出有显著影响。可见，社会保障是否能增加居民消费支出，需要具体分析居民的收入水平。因此提出建议：加大底层保障力度，健全社会保障制度；加强社会保险基金管理，完善社会保障体系；缩小社会保障差距，推进保障服务改革。

Abstract: Income is the decisive factor affecting residents’ consumption expenditure. In theory, the risk prevention function of social security can stabilize or improve residents’ consumption expectation, release consumption potential and promote the increase of consumption expenditure. It is a topic of common concern for many scholars to study the impact of social security on residents’ consumption expenditure through empirical analysis. Based on the statistical data from China Statistical Yearbook, this paper analyzes the impact of social security on consumer spending. The results show that residents’ disposable income has a significant positive impact on residents’ consumption expenditure, and the existence of social security has a significant impact on residents’ consumption expenditure. It can be seen that whether social security can increase residents’ consumption expenditure requires a specific analysis of residents’ income level. Therefore, it is proposed to strengthen the bottom security and improve the social security system; strengthen the management of social security fund; narrow the social security gap and promote the reform of security services.