生育数量对于农村老人自评健康的影响研究

The Study on the Effect of the Number of Births on the Self-Assessed Health of the Elderly in Rural Areas

摘要: 本文基于由北京大学社会科学调查中心公布的2016年中国家庭追踪调查数据库(CFPS)，通过构建理论分析框架，具体解释了生育数量对于老年人自评健康的影响。利用OLS回归分析以及进行相应的稳健性检验。研究表明：生育子女的数量作为一种早期的生活事件，以及与此同时个人特征以及所形成的一些生活方式均会对老年人健康产生影响。生育子女的数量会导致老年人自评健康产生两方面正反效应。本文数据分析得出生育数量对老年人健康产生显著的负面影响即生育数量每增加一个会使得老年人健康度降低24%。针对这种情况本文提出国家应完善“三孩政策”配套服务并加强宣传引导，以及规范彩礼市场等建议。

Abstract: Based on the 2016 China Family Tracking Survey Database (CFPS) published by the Center for Social Science Survey of Peking University, this paper specifically explains the impact of the number of births on the self-assessed health of the elderly by constructing a theoretical analysis framework. OLS regression analysis and corresponding robustness tests were performed. Studies have shown that the number of children born as an early life event, and at the same time personal characteristics and some of the lifestyles formed can have an impact on the health of the elderly. The number of children born will lead to two positive and negative effects on the self-rated health of the elderly. The data analysis in this paper shows that the number of births has a significant negative impact on the health of the elderly, that is, each increase in the number of births will reduce the health of the elderly by 24%. In response to this situation, this paper proposes that the state should introduce appropriate fertility policies to strengthen publicity and guidance, as well as standardize the betrothal gift market.