我国人口出生率影响因素研究

Study on the Influencing Factors of Birth Rate in China

摘要: “单独二孩”提出以来，人口出生率再一次成为广泛关注的焦点。数据显示，自1987年以来我国出生率持续降低，人口出生率的下降必然使得我国人口老龄化问题加剧，也会给社会以及国家的发展都带来一定的不良影响。经查阅得知：经济、医疗条件、教育及国家颁布的生育政策等方面均对我国的基本人口国情存在影响。本文旨在通过R软件建立回归方程及对所得回归数学模型进行分析，以改革开放以来中国人口基本国情为基础，对全国人口出生率影响因素进行探究。经试验分析得知：老年抚养比、居民消费水平、商品房平均销售价格及参加生育保险人数均对出生率具有显著的影响，其中，最显著的是老年抚养比和居民消费水平。

Abstract: Since the “single second child” was proposed, the population birth rate has once again become the focus of widespread attention. Data show that since 1987, China’s birth rate has continued to decline, the decline in the population birth rate will inevitably make China’s population aging problem aggravated, but also to the development of society and the country will bring certain adverse effects. After consultation, it is learned that the economy, medical conditions, education and the birth policy promulgated by the state have an impact on the basic population and national conditions of our country. This paper aims to establish the regression equation through R software and analyze the mathematical model of the obtained regression, and to explore the influencing factors of the national population birth rate based on the basic national conditions of the Chinese since the reform and opening up. After experimental analysis, it is learned that the old-age dependency ratio, the consumption level of residents, the average sales price of commercial housing and the number of people participating in birth insurance all have a significant impact on the birth rate, of which the most significant is the elderly dependency ratio and the consumption level of residents.