河南省城乡居民基本养老保险基金预测及统筹路径研究

Research on the Forecast and Overall Planning Path of the Basic Endowment Insurance Fund for Urban and Rural Residents in Henan Province

摘要: 养老保险基金的全国统筹有利于解决我国养老保险基金的结构性矛盾，本文首先以河南省的城乡居民养老保险基金为研究对象，对其收支状况进行概述，其次通过GM(1,1)模型对未来五年的收支状况进行预测，并对其相关影响因素进行分析，明确城乡居民基本养老保险基金实现全国统筹的必要性，最后为加快河南省城乡居民基本养老保险基金的全国统筹提出对策建议。

Abstract: National co-ordination of endowment insurance funds is conducive to solving the structural contradictions of endowment insurance funds in my country. This paper firstly takes the urban and rural residents endowment insurance funds in Henan Province as the research object, and summarizes their income and expenditure status. Secondly, through the GM(1,1) model, we predict the income and expenditure situation in the next five years, and analyze the relevant influencing factors, clarify the necessity of the national overall planning of the basic endowment insurance fund for urban and rural residents, and finally put forward countermeasures to speed up the national overall planning of the basic endowment insurance fund for urban and rural residents in Henan Province.