心理依赖对流动人口居住意愿影响研究——基于2017年CMDS的实证分析

Research on the Influence of Psychological Dependence on the Residence Choice of Migrant Population—An Empirical Study Based on 2017 CMDS

摘要: 目的：我国流动人口规模在经历长期快速增长后开始进入调整期，人口流动能促进人口红利的实现，提升流动人口的居住意愿对促进城市发展活力具有重要意义。对象和方法：利用2017年全国流动人口动态监测数据A卷，删选得到样本量122,301份，采用二元Logistic回归分析探讨心理依赖对我国流动人口居住选择的影响机制。结果：在影响机制上，拥有自有住房、与长辈结伴流动、愿意融入当地的流动人口未来更有可能久居以及落户意愿更强，呈现出明显的“流动人口心理依赖”，但对久居意愿与落户意愿影响程度不同。结论：从内生和外延两大层面提出建议：加强城市建设及公共服务体系从而打造宜居性城市、完善老人异地养老服务从而保障随迁老人生活质量、营造良好的社会融合氛围从而稳固城市发展活力。

Abstract: Objectives: The scale of the migrant population in China has entered an adjustment period after experiencing long-term rapid growth. Population mobility can promote the realization of demo-graphic dividends. Improving the residence choice of migrant population is of great significance to promoting the vitality of urban development. Objects and Methods: Using China Migrants Dynamic Survey in 2017 (Volume A), a sample size of 122,301 were deleted and selected. The binary Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the mechanism of psychological dependence on the resi-dence choice of the migrant population in China. Result: In terms of the impact mechanism, the mi-grant population who own their own houses, move with their elders, and are willing to integrate in-to the local area, are more likely to dwell longer in the future and have stronger willingness to settle down. That shows psychological dependence of the migrant population evidently, but different de-grees of dwelling longer and settling down. Conclusion: The following suggestions are made from endogenous and extended aspects. Strengthen urban construction and public service systems to create a livable city. Improve the care service in other cities for the elderly to ensure their life qual-ity. Create the good atmosphere of social integration and stabilize the vitality of urban development.