招远地区近61年气温变化特征分析

Analysis of Temperature Variation Characteristics in Zhaoyuan Area in Recent 61 Years

摘要: 基于招远市1961~2021年国家级气象观测站的地面观测整编资料，利用一元线性回归分析、气候倾向率、Mann-kendal气候突变研究等方法，分析了招远地区年平均气温、极端最低和最高气温、气温年较差的气候变化特征、年变化趋势和突变。结果显示：近61 a来，招远地区年平均气温上升趋势显著，增温速率为0.24℃/10 a；该地区年平均气温具有明显的年代际变化特征，升温趋势显著，1980年之前偏冷，之后转为偏暖；突变现象发生在1987年，且从1988年开始年平均气温升高趋势显著；极端最高气温趋于稳定，变化不大，但极端最低气温呈逐年下降趋势。

Abstract: Based on the ground observation data of Zhaoyuan national meteorological observation station from 1961 to 2021, the climate change characteristics and annual change trend of annual average temperature, extreme minimum and maximum temperature and annual range of temperature in Zhaoyuan area are analyzed by using the methods of univariate linear regression analysis, climate tendency rate and Mann Kendal climate catastrophe research. The results show that in recent 61 years, the annual average temperature in Zhaoyuan has a significant upward trend, and the temperature increasing rate is 0.24˚C/10 a; the annual average temperature in this area has obvious interdecadal variation characteristics, with a significant warming trend. It was cold before 1980 and then turned warm; the abrupt change occurred in 1987, and the annual average temperature has increased significantly since 1988; the extreme maximum temperature tends to be stable with little change, but the extreme minimum temperature shows a downward trend year by year.