十五年前股价大起大落对我国股市环境的警醒——基于CCK模型下企业声誉和羊群效应的视角

The Warning of the Fluctuation of Stock Price Fifteen Years Ago to China’s Stock Market Environment—Based on the Perspective of Corporate Reputation and Herd Effect under CCK Model

摘要: 以2005年6月6日~2008年11月3日深市A股为研究对象，实证分析十五年前企业声誉与羊群效应的关系从而证实股市环境中存在的严重问题，强调我国股市改革的必要性，警惕我国股票投资的不理性行为。实证结果表明：牛市和熊市中高声誉组企业羊群效应都大于低声誉组企业股票羊群效应。证实十五年前我国股市存在严重的信息不对称，投资者投机性过强的问题。

Abstract: Taking Shenzhen A-share market from June 6, 2005 to November 3, 2008 as the research object, this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between corporate reputation and herd effect fifteen years ago to prove the serious problems existing in the stock market environment, emphasizes the necessity of China’s stock market reform, and warns against the irrational behavior of China’s stock investment. The empirical results show that the herd effect of high reputation group is greater than that of low reputation group in both bull and bear markets. It is proved that 15 years ago there was serious information asymmetry in China’s stock market and investors were too speculative.