昆明长水机场地区低温极值的估算

The Estimation of Extreme Minimum Temperature Value at Kunming Changshui Airport Area

摘要: 利用昆明长水机场周边的云南嵩明、呈贡2个国家级气象观测站长序列气温资料，根据统计学原理，采用耿贝尔概率分布模型对该区域低温极值进行了估算并进行了拟合优度检验，以期提高对昆明长水机场可能潜在的低温强度认识。结果表明：昆明长水机场及周边地区10年、20年，50年、100年、500年一遇的极端最低气温分别为−7.9℃、−9.2℃、−10.9℃、−12.1℃、−15.1℃，强度弱于1983年12月29日出现的罕见低温极值−15.8℃，该低温出现概率大致为500年一遇。

Abstract: Based on the long series temperature data of Songming and Chenggong national weather stations around Kunming Changshui airport in Yunnan Province, according to the statistical principle, the extreme minimum temperature values in this area is estimated by using Gumbel probability distribution and K-S inspection, in order to improve the understanding of the possible and potential low temperature intensity of Kunming Changshui airport. The results show that the extreme minimum temperatures of Kunming Changshui airport and its surrounding areas with 10, 20, 50, 100, 500 year return periods are −7.9˚C, −9.2˚C, −10.9˚C, −12.1˚C, −15.1˚C respectively, and the intensity is weaker than the low temperature extreme value of −15.8˚C occurred on December 29, 1983. The occurrence probability of this rare low temperature is 500 year return period roughly.