COVID-19时空分布特征及影响因素研究——以石家庄市为例

Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Distribution and Influencing Factors of COVID-19—A Case Study of Shijiazhuang City

摘要: 新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情持续爆发，对人民生活和社会经济发展产生重要影响。了解新冠肺炎疫情的时空格局和影响因素，有助于控制疫情。本研究旨在分析石家庄市新冠肺炎疫情的时空分布特征及其与影响因素的关系。石家庄市疫情持续时间相对较短，高发时间在一月中下旬。利用ArcGIS空间统计分析工具发现高发区域位于藁城区及其周边地区，方向分布呈现沿“西北–东南”方向扩散的格局。采用多元回归模型发现生活和气象因素都对新冠肺炎的传播有影响，但生活因素的影响更大。对模型参数进行提取发现生活因素对新冠肺炎的影响是正相关，气象因素呈负相关。基于SPSS统计软件中Spearman相关系数分析发现距新发地的距离与确诊病例呈显著负相关。政策因素对新冠肺炎的发生有一定的影响，管控在其中发挥较大作用。石家庄市新冠肺炎高发病区域比较集中，说明疫情防控措施及时有效；生活环境政策因素等对新冠肺炎疫情的传播有一定影响，且影响较明显；研究也为元旦等人员流动较多情况下的流行病预防和控制提供一些建议。

Abstract: The outbreak of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) continues, which has an important impact on peo-ple’s life and social and economic development. Understanding the temporal and spatial pattern and influencing factors of the epidemic situation in COVID-19 is helpful to control the epidemic situation. The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution character-istics of COVID-19 epidemic in Shijiazhuang and its relationship with influencing factors. The epi-demic duration in Shijiazhuang is relatively short, with high incidence in the middle and late Jan-uary. Using ArcGIS spatial statistical analysis tools, it is found that the high incidence area is located in Gaocheng District and its surrounding areas, and its directional distribution shows a pattern of spreading along the northwest-southeast direction. Multiple regression model shows that both life and meteorological factors have an impact on the spread of COVID-19, but life factors have a greater impact. By extracting the model parameters, it is found that the influence of life factors on COVID-19 is positively correlated, while that of meteorological factors is negatively correlated. Based on the analysis of Spearman correlation coefficient in SPSS statistical software, it is found that the distance from the new place of origin is negatively correlated with the confirmed cases. Policy factors have certain influence on the occurrence of COVID-19, in which control plays a greater role. The high incidence areas in Shijiazhuang COVID-19 are concentrated, which indicates that the epidemic prevention and control measures are timely and effective; life policy factors have certain influence on the spread of COVID-19 epidemic, and the influence is obvious. The research also provides some suggestions for epidemic prevention and control in the case of high turnover of people such as New Year’s Day.