基于灰色预测模型的陕西省常住人口预测研究

Prediction and Analysis of Resident Population in Shaanxi Province Based on GM(1,1) Grey Prediction Model

摘要: 为了更好地预测分析陕西省常住人口，本文利用国家统计局官网最新统计资料，以2010~2019年陕西省常住人口数据为基础，建立GM(1,1)灰色预测模型，并用2020年常住人口数值对模型预测精度进行误差检验，结果显示模型预测精度高达99.54%。因此，使用该模型对2021~2025年陕西省常住人口数据进行预测研究，结果表明：2022年陕西省常住人口将超过4000万，到2025年将达到4092.8万。整体来看，未来5年陕西省常住人口数值以每年23.7万人的增速持续增长。

Abstract: In order to better predict and analyze the resident population of Shaanxi Province, this paper uses the latest statistical data on the official website of the National Bureau of statistics, based on the resident population data of Shaanxi Province from 2010 to 2019, establishes the GM (1,1) grey prediction model, and tests the prediction accuracy of the model with the resident population value in 2020. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the model is as high as 99.54%. Therefore, the model is used to predict the resident population data of Shaanxi Province from 2021 to 2025. The results show that the resident population of Shaanxi Province will exceed 40 million in 2022 and 40.928 million in 2025. Overall, the resident population of Shaanxi Province will continue to grow at an annual growth rate of 237000 in the next five years.