全球新冠疫苗分配情况的测度

Measurement of Global COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution

摘要: 世界卫生组织总干事谭德塞在致辞中表示，新冠肺炎疫情是百年一遇的健康危机。目前新冠疫苗的研发成功正是解决这个危机的关键，接种疫苗能够极大地降低人体感染病毒致病的概率。但是由于全球国家之间贫富差距大，医疗科技水平不一，新冠疫苗研发与分配也存在均衡性的问题。为解决全球疫苗分配不均的问题，世界卫生组织整理并公布了其成员国中每个国家的疫苗需求量。本文以其公布的国家名单为基础，为寻求公平公正的疫苗分配方案和确定具体实际疫苗分配数两个问题，通过计算和推导，建立运筹学0-1规划模型和回归分析模型，并考虑多种影响因素，使模型更具合理性和实用性，最后利用LINGO软件进行模型求解，解决第一批疫苗分配问题。

Abstract: The director general of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said in his speech that the COVID-19 is a once-in-a-century health crisis. The key to resolving the crisis is the development of a vaccine. Vaccination can greatly reduce the probability of human infection of the virus. However, due to the large gap between the rich and the poor among countries around the world and the different levels of medical technology, there is a balance problem in the development and distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine. To solve the global inequity in vaccine distribution, the World Health Organization has collated and published the vaccine requirements of each of its member countries. This paper uses its published list of countries as the basis for the two problems of finding an equitable vaccine distribution plan and determining the actual number of vaccines to be distributed. Through calculations and derivations, an operations research 0-1 planning model and a regression analysis model are developed, and various influencing factors are taken into account to make the model more reasonable and practical, and finally the model is solved using LINGO software to solve the first batch of vaccine distribution problems.