一类媒介具有阶段结构的西尼罗河病毒模型的敏感性分析

Sensitivity Analysis of a Model Formulated for West Nile Virus with a Stage-Structured Vector Population

摘要: 本文研究了一类结合鸟类–蚊子种群结构的西尼罗河病毒(WNv)传播模型，用PRCC方法对模型的蚊虫再生数和WNv疾病暴发再生数进行了敏感性分析，对防蚊灭蚊和控制病毒传播提出更好的防控措施。结果表明：控制WNv传播最好办法是降低媒介蚊子的数量，而限制蚊子的最佳策略是从幼虫阶段开始。另外未受感染鸟类的补给率的下降将有益于WNv的传播，因此在WNv暴发期间，利用控制鸟类的数量来抑制其传播是危险的。相反，我们应该适当加大未感染的鸟类的投放。

Abstract: A mathematical model is formulated for the transmission dynamics of West Nile virus (WNv) between a stage-structured mosquito and bird population. Through sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number for mosquito and for outbreaks of WNv by the PRCC method, preventive and control of anti-mosquito and WNv disease transmission are discussed. The results show that the best way to control the spread of WNv is to decrease the number of mosquitoes and control mosquitoes at the larval stage. Besides decreasing the recruitment rate of the uninfected birds is beneficial to the prevalence of the WNv. This observation suggests that it is a risk factor for the spread of WNv to control the birds during the period that the WNv prevails. By contraries, we should increase the recruitment rate of uninfected birds.