青冈县1978年以来气候变化对主要农作物产量影响的研究

Research on the Impact of Climate Change on the Yield of Main Crops in Qinggang County Since 1978

摘要: 研究选取青冈县1978~2019年的气温、降水、农作物种植面积及产量数据，利用气候倾向速率及M-K突变性检验等方法对气候数据处理分析，通过5a滑动平均的方法分解获取气候产量，并建立气候影响度模型定量计算青冈县主要农作物产量受气候变化影响情况，进而探讨青冈县农业生产力影响因素，在此基础上提出相关政策建议措施。研究得出如下结论：1) 青冈县1978年以来年际平均气温呈现明显升高趋势，且气温升高主要为最低气温上升引起，也就是由冬季变暖引起，年际平均气温M-K检验突变点为1990年。青冈县近40年降水量波动较大，降水量整体为上升趋势，突变点发生在1995年。2) 模型实证结果显示，玉米与大豆变化一致，在气温突变前后一直为正影响，且突变后气温影响度加大；玉米在降水量突变前后趋势一致，为负影响，但影响度变小；大豆在降雨量突变前后由正影响变为负影响。3) 针对青冈县农业气候及农业生产力研究，提出以下农业发展对策建议，调整种植结构，推进生物技术引进，加强生产管理，落实农村生态保护政策。

Abstract: The research selects the temperature, precipitation, crop planting area and yield data of Qinggang county from 1978 to 2019, processes and analyzes the climate data by using the methods of climate tendency rate and M-K mutation test, decomposes and obtains the climate yield by the method of 5a moving average, establishes the climate impact degree model, quantitatively calculates the impact of climate change on the yield of main crops in Qinggang County, and then discusses the influencing factors of agricultural productivity in Qinggang county, On this basis, relevant policy suggestions and measures are put forward. The conclusions are as follows: 1) the interannual average temperature in Qinggang county has shown an obvious upward trend since 1978, and the temperature rise is mainly caused by the rise of minimum temperature, that is, caused by winter warming. The M-K test mutation point of interannual average temperature is 1990. The precipitation in Qinggang County fluctuated greatly in recent 40 years, and the precipitation showed an upward trend as a whole. The mutation point occurred in 1995. 2) The empirical results of the model show that the changes of corn and soybean are consistent, and the influence of temperature is always positive before and after the sudden change of temperature, and the influence degree of temperature increases after the sudden change of temperature; the trend of maize is the same before and after the sudden change of precipitation, which is negative, but the degree of influence becomes smaller; soybean changed from positive effect to negative effect before and after rainfall mutation. 3) According to the research on agricultural climate and agricultural productivity in Qinggang County, the following countermeasures and suggestions for agricultural development are put forward, the planting structure is adjusted, the introduction of biotechnology is promoted, production management is strengthened, and rural ecological protection policies are implemented.