城镇职工基本养老保险替代率及其影响因素研究

Study on the Replacement Rate of Urban Workers’ Basic Pension Insurance and Its Influencing Factors

摘要: 近年来，随着我国人口老龄化程度的加深，国家一直在提高企业退休人员的基本养老金，但城镇职工养老金替代率却一直在下降。论文拟采用灰色关联度分析社会平均工资替代率的影响因素，进一步使用GM(1,1)对替代率进行预测，结果显示制度赡养比、在职职工工资增长率与社会平均工资替代率存在强关联关系，同时预测城镇职工基本养老保险替代率继续下降至40%左右。

Abstract: In recent years, with the deepening of aging population in China, the government has been increas-ing the basic pension of enterprise retirees, but the replacement rate of pension for urban workers has been declining. The paper proposes to analyze the influence factors of the replacement rate of social average wage by using grey correlation, and further use GM(1,1) to forecast the replacement rate. The results show that there is a strong correlation between the institutional support ratio, the wage growth rate of active workers and the replacement rate of social average wage, while predict-ing that the replacement rate of basic old-age insurance for urban workers will continue to fall to about 40%.