安徽省卫生总费用的预测分析——基于灰色GM(1,1)模型

Predictive Analysis of Total Health Expenditure in Anhui Province—Based on Grey GM(1,1) Model

摘要: 目的：预测2020~2026年共七年安徽省卫生总费用及其筹资结构。方法：基于灰色系统理论，收集2009~2019年期间的安徽省省卫生总费用数据，建立安徽省卫生总费用的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型。研究安徽省卫生总费用筹资水平与筹资结构及其占GDP比重现状。结果：安徽省卫生总费用及其占GDP比重逐年增加，政府、个人卫生支出比例不断降低，社会卫生支出比例不断提高的趋势。研究意义：为区域卫生健康费用管理、筹资水平与结构优化提供科学依据，促进安徽省卫生健康事业的发展。

Abstract: Objective: To forecast the total health expenditure and its financing structure in Anhui Province for seven years from 2020 to 2026. Methods: Based on the grey system theory, the data of total health expenditure in Anhui Province from 2009 to 2019 were collected, and a GM(1,1) grey prediction model of total health expenditure in Anhui Province was established. To study the financing level and financing structure of total health expenditure in Anhui Province and its proportion to GDP. Results: The total health expenditure and its proportion in GDP in Anhui Province increased year by year, the proportion of government and individual health expenditure decreased, and the propor-tion of social health expenditure increased. Provide scientific basis for regional health cost man-agement, financing level and structure optimization, which is of great significance to the develop-ment of health care in Anhui Province.