基于Delphi-Precedence Chart方法的长途道路客运班线安全风险评估指标体系研究——以800 km以上班线为例

Research on Safety Risk Assessment Index System of Long-Distance Passenger Line Based on Delphi-Precedence Chart Method—Taking the Commuter Line above 800 km as an Example

摘要: 长期以来，长途道路客运班线作为综合交通运输服务网络的重要组成部分，为广大人民群众跨区域安全便捷出行提供了重要基础支撑。为了提高800 km以上省际道路客运班线的安全运行水平，强化在途线路运行管理，本文以长期从事长途客运班线的企业管理者为调查对象，设计了12个类目共计58个要素评估指标并进行问卷调查。通过采用Delphi和Precedence Chart相结合的方法进行定性定量分析，确定“车辆技术等级是否符合标准规范要求”、“车辆驾驶员是否有操作失误情况”、“是否落实车辆安全检查制度，是否做好出车前后检查”以及“客运车辆是否有运输违禁货物、危险化学品情况”是客运班线运行安全的主要影响指标。研究表明，应当持续积极改善上述指标，增强800 km公路以上省际道路客运班线安全管理能力与水平。

Abstract: As an important part of the comprehensive transportation service network, long-distance road passenger lines have long provided important basic support for the people to travel safely and conveniently across regions. In order to improve the safe operation of inter-provincial road passenger transport routes over 800 km and strengthen the management of in-transit route operation, this paper takes the managers of long-distance passenger transport routes as the target of the survey, designs 12 categories with 58 evaluation indicators and conducts a questionnaire survey. Through a combination of Delphi and Precedence Chart methods, qualitative and quantitative analyses were conducted to determine “whether the technical level of the vehicle meets the requirements of the standards”, “whether the vehicle driver has made any operational errors”, and “whether the vehicle safety inspection system is implemented”. The main impact indicators on the operational safety of passenger transport routes are “whether the vehicle safety inspection system is implemented and whether pre- and post-trip inspections are carried out properly” and “whether prohibited goods and dangerous chemicals are transported in passenger transport vehicles”. The study shows that the above indicators should be actively improved on a continuous basis to enhance the safety management capacity and level of inter-provincial road passenger transport routes above 800 km.