去产能对制造业供给质量的影响——基于省级面板数据的双重差分模型

The Impact of De-Capacity on Manufacturing Supply Quality—The Difference-in-Difference Model Based on Provincial Panel Data

摘要: 去产能政策的主要任务是淘汰落后的产能，有序引导过剩产能退出市场，通过对制造业的全面整顿，加强建设规范化的产业结构，增强企业的创新发展能力，以此建立长期有效的市场机制。本文基于2008~2019年中国30个省市面板数据，以制造业全要素生产率为研究对象，利用双重差分模型分析去产能政策对制造业供给质量的影响。研究显示：去产能政策促进制造业供给质量的提高，促进效应在研发投入强度、地区GDP增长率更高的南方省份中效果更强。进一步分析发现，去产能政策的实施与制造业员工数量具有显著的中介效应。本文为如何切实推进去产能政策、解决去产能政策导致的员工失业问题提供了解决依据，丰富了关于去产能政策的研究文献。

Abstract: The main task of the de-capacity policy is to eliminate the backward production capacity, orderly guide excess capacity out of the market, strengthen the construction of a standardized industrial structure and enhance the innovation and development capacity of enterprises, through a compre-hensive overhaul of the manufacturing industry as a way to establish a long-term effective market mechanism. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2008 to 2019, this paper analyzes the impact of the de-capacity policy on the quality of manufacturing supply using a double difference model with the total factor productivity of the manufacturing industry as the re-search object. The study shows that the de-capacity policy promotes the improvement of manufac-turing supply quality, and the promotion effect is more substantial in the southern provinces with higher R&D investment intensity and higher GDP growth rate. Further analysis finds that the im-plementation of the de-capacity policy has a significant mediating effect on the number of manu-facturing employees. This paper provides a solution basis for how to effectively promote the de-capacity policy and solve the problem of employee unemployment caused by the de-capacity policy and enriches the research literature on the de-capacity policy.