COVID-19疫情对汽车消费的影响及区域差异研究——基于空间统计及计量模型

Research on Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic on Automobile Consumption and Regional Differences in China—Based on Spatial Statistics and Econometric Models

摘要: 汽车消费市场是我国实现“双循环”“扩内需”战略的重要组成部分，COVID-19疫情对汽车消费的影响总体较大且偏负面、局部多元而不平衡。基于我国31个省市(自治区)的COVID-19累计确诊数(截止到2020年12月31日)、2019~2020年汽车销量、经济发展、汽车服务业等统计数据，采用ESDA、Theil指数、局域热点、空间杜宾模型等方法，从地区或省市层面分析了COVID-19疫情对2020年汽车消费的影响及区域差异。研究发现：1) COVID-19疫情影响下2019~2020年间我国汽车销量下降9.31%，七大地区汽车消费均下降但程度不一，省级汽车消费存在显著的空间集聚特征，销量热点分布于华东及华中地区，疫情对汽车消费省级空间格局影响很小。2) 受COVID-19疫情影响，省际汽车销量的Theil系数总体差异、组间差异、组内差异2019~2020年间均有所下降，组内差异对总体差异的贡献率更大，华南、西南地区的Theil系数较大，东北、华中地区的Theil系数较小。3) 空间杜宾模型分析表明，COVID-19疫情对汽车消费形成显著为负的抑制效应，周边地区汽车服务业水平对本地汽车销量形成抑制效应，邻近地区汽车销量对本地汽车销量形成正向空间溢出效应，各因素中收入水平对汽车消费的促进作用最为明显。

Abstract: The automobile consumption market is an important part of China’s strategy of realizing “dual circulation” and “expanding domestic demand”. The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on automobile consumption is generally negative, partially diversified and unbalanced. Based on the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in 31 provinces in China (as of December 31, 2020), the 2019~2020 automobile sales, economic development, automobile service industry and other statistical data, ESDA, Theil index, Local hotspots, spatial Dubin model and other methods are used to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on automobile consumption in 2020 and regional differences from the regional or provincial level. The study found: 1) Under the influence of the COVID-19 epidemic, China’s auto sales dropped by 9.31% from 2019 to 2020. The automobile con-sumption in the seven major regions decreased, but the degree was different. The provincial auto-mobile consumption has significant spatial clustering characteristics. The sales hotspots are distributed in East China and Central China. It has little impact on the provincial spatial pattern of automobile consumption. 2) Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the overall difference, inter-group difference, and intragroup difference of the Theil coefficient of inter-provincial automobile sales all decreased from 2019 to 2020, and the intragroup difference contributed more to the overall difference. The Theil coefficient of South China and Southwest China is larger, and the Theil coefficient of Northeast and Central China is smaller. 3) The analysis of Spatial Dubin model shows that COVID-19 epidemic has a significant negative inhibitory effect on automobile consumption, the level of the auto service industry in the surrounding areas has a restraint effect on local automobile sales, the automobile sales in adjacent areas have a positive spatial spillover effect on local automobile sales, and the income level has the most obvious role in promoting automobile consumption.