长沙地区基于闪电定位与雷达资料的初闪发生预报研究

Study on Prediction of Initial Lightning Based on Lightning Location and Radar Data in Changsha

摘要: 本文利用2021年夏季长沙地区的闪电定位资料及雷达资料，统计了11个雷暴单体和5个非雷暴单体的回波顶高，包括30 dBZ、35 dBZ和40 dBZ三种雷达反射率，通过相关性分析，对0℃、−10℃和−20℃的温度层结高度上超过上述三种雷达反射率因子的回波面积和闪电频次进行讨论。从结果中可以得出：在40 dBZ情况下，两种单体超过三种温度层高的比例差最大。可通过−10℃层上40 dBZ回波顶高来对两种单体进行区分，此条件下的回波面积至少大于47.84 km²。

Abstract: Based on the lightning location data and radar data in Changsha in the summer of 2021, the echo top heights of 11 thunderstorm cells and 5 non-thunderstorm cells, including 30 dBZ, 35 dBZ and 40 dBZ radar reflectivity, are counted. Through correlation analysis, the echo area and lightning frequency of 0˚C, −10˚C and −20˚C temperature stratification heights that exceed the above three radar reflectivity factors are discussed. It can be concluded from the results that under the condition of 40 dBZ, the proportion difference between the two monomers with more than three temperature layer heights is the largest. The two monomers can be distinguished by the 40 dBZ echo top height on the −10˚C layer, and the echo area under this condition is at least greater than 47.84 km².