基于DEA-Tobit模型的城乡居民基本养老保险基金效率研究及影响因素分析

Research on the Efficiency of Basic Pension Insurance Funds for Urban and Rural Residents and Analysis of Influencing Factors Based on DEA-Tobit Model

摘要: 城乡居保基金的良好利用是我国人口老龄化、市场化和城镇化背景下实现基础养老金“保基本”目标的基础，基金的可持续问题是政府长期研究的热点，是否可以运用我国的市场机制、城镇化机制来缓解城乡居保基金的压力具有研究价值。利用DEA-Tobit模型对我国31个省级行政区2012~2020年的城乡居保数据进行分析并探究城乡居保基金利用效率及其影响因素。从结果来看：市场化可以提高居保基金的利用率，城镇化对城乡居保基金的回归结果不显著。地区生产总值对数、基金可持续能力对城乡居民基本养老保险基金具有负向影响。人均收入和市场化程度对基金利用效率具有正向影响。经济发展好的省市基金规模报酬多呈现递减的状态，存在地域差异。基于此提出了根据自身特点针对性加强基金利用效率；提高基金可持续能力的同时保证基金效率；加快推进市场化运作；通过加强宣传力度提升居民的参保率等。

Abstract: The good use of urban and rural residential insurance funds is the basis for achieving the goal of “guaranteeing the basics” of basic pensions in the context of population aging, marketization and urbanization in China, and the sustainability of the fund is a hot spot in the government’s long-term research, and whether China’s market mechanism and urbanization mechanism can be used to alleviate the pressure of urban and rural residential insurance funds has research value. The DEA-Tobit model is used to analyze the urban and rural residential security data of 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2012 to 2020, and to explore the utilization efficiency of urban and rural residential security funds and its influencing factors. Judging from the results, marketization can improve the utilization rate of the residential insurance fund, and the return of urbanization to the urban and rural residential security fund is not significant. The logarithm of regional GDP and the sustainability of the fund have a negative impact on the basic pension insurance fund for urban and rural residents. Per capita income and the degree of marketization have a positive impact on the efficiency of the use of the fund. The scale and remuneration of provincial and municipal funds with good economic development are mostly in a decreasing state, and there are regional differences. Based on this, it is proposed to strengthen the efficiency of fund utilization according to its own characteristics, improve the sustainability of the fund while ensuring the efficiency of the fund, accelerate the promotion of market-oriented operation, and increase the participation rate of residents by strengthening publicity.