北京市人口老龄化预测及其影响因素分析——基于灰色GM(1,1)和灰色关联度分析

Prediction of Population Aging in Beijing and Analysis of Its Influencing Factors—Based on Grey GM (1,1) and Grey Correlation Degree Analysis

摘要: 为预测北京市人口老龄化发展趋势并分析其影响因素，运用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测出北京市未来30年的人口老龄化发展趋势，并将灰色关联度模型运用于与北京人口老龄化相关的9个因素的分析中。结果发现北京市未来30年人口老龄化程度加剧，影响北京人口老龄化的9大因素中，少年儿童系数与老龄化系数的关联度最大。在模型分析结果的基础上提出积极鼓励三胎生育，优化人口结构、扩大养老机构规模，正确引导养老服务产业发展、缩小城乡养老服务差距，努力提高城乡居家养老服务品质。

Abstract: In order to predict the development trend of population aging in Beijing and analyze its influencing factors, the grey GM (1,1) model is used to predict the development trend of population aging in Beijing in the next 30 years, and the grey correlation model is applied to the analysis of 9 factors related to population aging in Beijing. The results show that the degree of population aging in Beijing will intensify in the next 30 years. Among the nine factors affecting population aging in Beijing, the correlation between children’s coefficient and aging coefficient is the largest. Based on the results of the model analysis, it is proposed to actively encourage three births, optimize the population structure, expand the scale of elderly care institutions, correctly guide the development of elderly care service industry, narrow the gap between urban and rural elderly care services, and strive to improve the quality of home-based elderly care services in urban and rural areas.