1960~2019年西宁气候变化特征分析

Characteristics of Climate Change in Xining during 1960~2019

摘要: 为了研究西宁气候变化特征，本文利用1960~2019年西宁逐日气温、降水量、日照时数和相对湿度数据，通过线性倾向趋势分析、滑动平均和Mann-Kendall检验，对各气象要素的年际变化趋势和突变进行分析。结果表明：西宁年气温呈现显著上升趋势，变化速率为0.07℃/10a，近60 a年平均气温为6.0℃，年平均气温在1970年前后发生了突变。年降水量的上升趋势极为显著，变化率为17.55 mm/10a，年降水量的平均值为392.9 mm，M-K检验发现年降水量在90年代末期发生突变。年日照时数呈极显著的下降趋势，变化率为−63.9 h/10a，年日照时数的平均值为2643.5 h，年日照时数的突变发生在1987年。西宁年平均相对湿度虽呈上升的趋势，但并不显著，其变化率为0.33%/10a，平均值为56%，平均相对湿度在1992年可能发生突变。

Abstract: In order to study the characteristics of climate change in Xining, daily temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and relative humidity data from 1960 to 2019 in Xining were used to analyze the interannual variation trends and abrupt changes of various meteorological elements through linear trend analysis, moving average and Mann-Kendall test. The results show that the annual temperature in Xining presents a significant upward trend, with a rate of 0.07˚C/10a, and the average temperature in the recent 60 years is 6.0˚C. The annual average temperature has a sudden change around 1970. The annual precipitation increased significantly with a change rate of 17.55 mm/10a, and the average annual precipitation was 392.9 mm. The M-K test showed that the annual precipitation changed dramatically in the late 1990 s. The annual sunshine duration showed a very significant downward trend with a change rate of −63.9 h/10a, and the average annual sunshine duration was 2643.5 h. The mutation of annual sunshine duration occurred in 1987. Although the annual mean relative humidity in Xining showed an upward trend, it was not significant, with a change rate of 0.33%/10a and an average of 56%. The average relative humidity may have a sudden change in 1992.