基于层次分析法的女性生育意愿影响因素分析

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Women’s Fertility Intention Based on Analytic Hierarchy Method

摘要: 生育率的不断降低是当今社会亟待解决的问题，引起了国内外学者的广泛关注，由于国情和历史文化的不同，并没有得到一致的结论。通过查阅大量相关文献和公开数据，对国内女性生育意相关的文章进行梳理，总结影响女性生育意愿的因素，建立女性生育意愿影响因素层次结构模型，分别研究政策、经济、社会和文化对女性生育意愿的影响。研究发现，女性生育意愿受家庭经济收入、传统家庭观念、女性教育水平和生育成本等影响。其中经济层面中的生育成本是影响女性生育率的主要因素，社会和政策层面影响权重次之，文化层面影响最小。并在此基础上提出促进女性生育意愿的相关对策建议。

Abstract: The continuous decrease of fertility rate is an urgent problem to be solved in today’s society, which has attracted extensive attention from scholars at home and abroad. Due to the differences in national conditions and historical culture, no unanimous conclusion has been reached. By referring to a large number of relevant literature and public data, this paper sorted out the domestic articles related to female fertility intention, summarized the factors influencing female fertility intention, established the hierarchical structure model of factors influencing female fertility intention, and studied the influence of policy, economy, society and culture on female fertility intention. It is found that women’s willingness to bear children is affected by family income, traditional family concept, female education level and birth cost. The economic bearing cost is the main factor influencing the female fertility rate, followed by the social and policy factors, and the cultural factors. On this basis, the author puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions to promote female fertility willingness.