上海市社区体育健身设施数预测——基于GM(1,1)模型

Prediction of the Number of Community Sports Fitness Facilities in Shanghai—Based on GM(1,1) Model

摘要: 为响应健康中国战略，各城市掀起全民健身热潮。通过研究发现，上海的全民健身存在一定程度的社区化，本文借助GM(1,1)模型，预测上海市社区健身设施数量的增长情况，为上海市推进社区体育建设提供建议，可为全国其他城市对于促进完善全民健身公共服务体系提供借鉴。结果发现，该模型的拟合程度较高，未来五年内社区体育健身设施数量整体呈现增长趋势。为了进一步完善体育建设，首先要增加社区体育健身设施的土地面积；其次除了政府作为主导进行调控之外，鼓励社会组织以及个人力量多方主体参与协作；再者要合理分配区域间设施数量，最后保证社区体育健身设施的质量，最终达到全民健身的目标效果。

Abstract: In response to Healthy China, cities in China have set off an upsurge of national fitness. Through the research, it is found that there is a certain degree of community-based fitness in Shanghai. So this paper predicts the growth of the number of community fitness facilities in Shanghai and provides suggestions for promoting the construction of community sports in Shanghai, and can provide ref-erence for other cities in China to promote the improvement of the public service system of national fitness with the help of GM(1,1) model. The result shows that the fitting degree of this model is high, and the number of community sports fitness facilities will show an overall growth trend in the next five years. In order to further improve the sports construction, we should first increase the land area of community sports fitness facilities. Secondly, in addition to the government’s leading regulation, social organizations and individual forces should be encouraged to participate in cooperation. Moreover, we should reasonably allocate the number of facilities between regions, and finally ensure the quality of community sports and fitness facilities, so as to finally achieve the goal effect of national fitness.