我国上市银行经营业绩影响因素分析

Analysis on the Factors Affecting the Operational Performance of China Listed Banks

摘要: 经营业绩体现银行经营活动所带来的财务状况和经营成果，它的主要依据是会计报表，例如，财务状况主要以资产负债表、现金流量表及相关附注为基础，经营成果主要以利润表等损益类报表及相关附注为基础。本文首先利用多元线性回归分析法建立银行经营业绩评价分析模型，然后对回归方程、回归系数进行检验，并对回归方程进行诊断，从实验结果可以看出在显著性水平0.05下，回归方程显著，但回归系数只有Χ₁，Χ₈显著，并且回归方程存在多重共线和异方差。因此，利用主成分回归对回归方程进行改进。利用主成分分析法选择4个综合指标(包含原始变量92.555%)代替原始变量，然后对这4个指标做回归分析，主成分回归方程的所有回归系数均显著，并且回归方程不存在多重共线性、异方差和自相关性。

Abstract: Operating performances reflect the financial status and operating results brought about by the bank’s operating activities. Its main basis is the accounting statements. For example, the financial status is mainly based on the balance sheet, the cash flow statement and related notes, and the operating results are mainly basedon the income statement, etc. profit and loss statements and related notes. In this paper, the multiple linear regression analysis method is used to establish the analysis model of bank business performance evaluation, and then the regression equation and regression coefficient are tested, and the regression equation is diagnosed. It can be seen from the experimental results that at the significance level of 0.05, the regression equation is significant, but the regression coefficient is only Χ₁,Χ₈ significant, and the regression equation has multicollinearity and heteroscedasticity. Therefore, the regression equation is improved by using principal component regression. Use principal component analysis to select 4 comprehensive indicators (including 92.555% of the original variables) to replace the original variables, and then perform regression analysis on these 4 indicators, all regression coefficients of the principal component regression equation were significant, and the regression equation did not have multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation.