居民长期护理保险需求影响因素分析——基于灰色关联分析模型

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Residents’ Long-Term Care Insurance Demand—Based on Grey Relational Analysis Model

摘要: 自1999年底我国步入人口老龄化社会后，老年人日常生活照护问题成为困扰家庭发展的关键问题，同时由老龄化现象衍生而来的老年人护理困境也是在社会发展过程中亟待解决的重点问题，而长期护理保险的出台为上述问题的解决提供重要方法。我国长期护理保险的发展目前正处于刚起步并亟待成长的阶段，多角度的分析研究对推动长期护理保险的稳步发展具有现实意义，因此本研究依据灰色关联分析模型对我国居民长期护理保险需求情况的影响因素进行研究，分析两者间的关联程度。研究结果发现，在经济层面，养老保障总体水平和居民人均可支配收入与居民长期护理保险需求间有较大的相关性；在社会人口学层面，老年抚养比和城镇化水平与居民长期护理保险需求水平关联性较强。由此提出建议，完善和强化长期护理保险的相关筹资体系，提高保障力度；促进长期护理保险和社会保险的有效衔接；构建全面的配套制度体系，促进制度的可持续发展。

Abstract: Since China has entered an aging society at the end of 1999, the daily life care of the elderly has be-come a key problem that plagues family development. At the same time, the elderly care dilemma derived from the aging phenomenon is also a heart issues to be solved in the course of social devel-opment, and the unveil fresh long-term care insurance provides an essential method to facilitate the problem figure out. The evolution of long-term care insurance in China is currently at the early stage and needs to grow up urgently. Multi-angle analysis and research are of practical significance to promote the steady development of long-term care insurance. Therefore, based on the Grey Rela-tional Analysis Model, this research investigates demand of Chinese residents in regard to the in-fluencing factors of the long-term care insurance, and analyzes the degree of correlation between them. The results of the study found that, at the economic level, the overall level of old-age security and residents’ per capita disposable income had a greater correlation with residents’ long-term care insurance needs; at the socio-demographic level, the elderly dependency ratio and urbaniza-tion level were closely related to residents’ long-term care insurance. The level of demand is strongly correlated. Therefore, proposal are come up with to strengthen the long-term care insur-ance financing system and enhance the security; promote the resultful engagement between long-term care insurance and social insurance; build a comprehensive supporting institutional sys-tem to promote the sustainable development of the system.