上海社区卫生服务中心医疗服务效率发展现状及预测研究

Development Status and Forecast Research of Medical Service Efficiency of Shanghai Community Health Service Center

摘要: 目的：了解上海社区卫生服务中心医疗服务效率的基本情况，对其变化趋势进行预测分析，以期为提高上海社区卫生服务中心医疗服务效率提供借鉴与参考。方法：依据2015~2021年《中国卫生健康统计年鉴》有关数据，利用灰色GM(1,1)模型对未来7年上海社区卫生中心医疗服务效率进行预测。结果：2014~2020年，上海社区卫生服务中心治疗人次数呈波动下降走向，医生日均负责治疗人次数整体表现出下降趋势；床位利用率和医生日均担负住院床日数均呈减少趋势；出院患者平均住院日呈增长趋势。通过灰色模型预测得，2021~2025年治疗人次数呈下降趋势；平均住院日呈逐年增长趋势，医师日均担负住院床日数呈稳定下降走向。结论：上海社区卫生服务中心的诊疗服务效率逐步提升，住院服务效率较低。今后，上海市政府需加大对优秀家庭医生的引进与其服务能力的培训，合理有效地缩短平均住院日以及依托双向转诊，提高社区卫生中心医疗服务效率。

Abstract: Objective: To understand the basic situation of the medical service efficiency of Shanghai community health service center, and to predict and analyze its changing trend, in order to provide reference and reference for improving the medical service efficiency of Shanghai community health service center. Methods: Based on the relevant data of “China Health Statistical Yearbook” from 2015 to 2021, the gray GM(1,1) model was used to predict the medical service efficiency of Shanghai community health centers in the next seven years. Results: From 2014 to 2020, the number of patients treated by Shanghai community health service centers fluctuated and decreased, and the average number of patients in charge of treating patients per day showed a downward trend; the bed utilization rate and the number of hospital bed days per day for doctors showed a decreasing trend; the average number of discharged patients showed a downward trend. Hospitalization days showed an increasing trend. According to the prediction of the grey model, the number of treated patients will show a downward trend from 2021 to 2025; the average hospitalization days will increase year by year, and the average daily hospital bed days of doctors will show a steady downward trend. Conclusion: The efficiency of diagnosis and treatment service in Shanghai community health service center is gradually improved, while the efficiency of inpatient service is low. In the future, the Shanghai government needs to increase the introduction of excellent family doctors and the training of their service capabilities, reasonably and effectively shorten the average hospital stay, and rely on two-way referrals to improve the efficiency of medical services in community health centers.