夏热冬冷地区建筑业碳排放的关联性与波及性及敏感性分析——以湖南省为例

The Analysis of Correlation Properties and Spreading and Sensitivity Characteristics on CO2 Emission from Energy Consumption of Construction Sector in Hot Summer and Cold Winter Zone: A Case Study of Hunan Province

摘要: 建筑业发展拉动了关联产业发展，不仅促进后者能耗碳排放的增长，也导致前者自身碳排放的增长，因而波及到整个国民经济各部门。基于EIO-LCA模型，采集湖南省2002、2007和2012年42部门投入产出表等数据，测算和分析建筑业能耗碳排放的关联性、波及性和敏感性及其变化。结果表明：建筑业是典型“高影响、高排放”部门，交通运输、仓储业和邮政业的前向关联性较大且稳定，通用、专用设备制造业的后向关联性也如此；建筑业能耗碳排放的影响力系数呈逐年上升之势，感应力系数却呈逐年下降之势，其他部门对建筑业能耗碳排放的拉动作用不显著；三个年份建筑业碳排放的技术、结构责任系数、及对各部门碳排放强度弹性的较大部门，集中在能源开采和洗选业，石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业，非金属矿物制品业，金属冶炼及压延加工业，电力、热力的生产和供应业，它们多属资源开采及加工部门。因此一应降低该部门生产中的碳排放，二来建筑业也要尽量减少对该部门的产品或服务需求。

Abstract: The development of construction sector has promoted the development of related industries. It not only promotes the growth of the latter’s energy consumption and carbon emissions, but also leads to the growth of the former’s own carbon emissions, which affected the whole national economy. Based on the EIO-LCA model, data such as IO Tables of 42 sectors in Hunan Province for 2002, 2007 and 2012 year were collected to measure and analyze the correlation properties and spreading and sensitivity characteristics of carbon emissions from energy consumption sector and their changes on the construction sector. The results show that: the construction sector was one of the typical “high-impact/high-emission” sectors; the forward correlation property of Transportation, Storage and Post Industry was large and stable, the backward correlation property of Manufacture of General and Special Purpose Machinery was also the same; the influence coefficients of construction sector’s carbon emissions from energy consumption were on the rise year by year, but sensitivity coefficients were on the declining year by year; the pulling affection were not significant for other sectors on the construction sector’s carbon emissions from energy consumption; the greater sectors of technical responsibility coefficients and structural responsibility coefficients on construction sector’s CO2, and elasticity regarding CO2 emission intensity of all sectors in 2002, 2007 and 2012 year, concentrated in Mining and Washing of energy, Processing of Petroleum, Coking, Nuclear Oil, Manufacture of Non-Metallic Mineral Products, Manufacture and Processing of Metals, Production and Supply of Electric & Heat Power, which mostly belong to the resource extraction and processing sectors. Therefore, one should reduce CO2 emissions from these sectors’ production, and the construction sector should also minimize demand for products or services of these sectors.